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 Wednesday, August 20, 2008
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News Detail
USDA revises forecast for corn
7/1/2008 7:48:07 AM
LINCOLN -- The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Monday that more acres nationally have been planted to corn and that more should be harvested this fall than it previously expected.
However, the USDA also predicted that 9 percent less corn would be harvested this year than in 2007.
And despite that projected drop, corn prices fell at the Chicago Board of Trade.
That's because marketers had been prepared for an even bigger decline after widespread Midwest flooding.
Corn futures, which were about $6 a bushel in early June and rose to about $7.60 as recently as last week, dropped nearly 30 cents to about $7.25 on the Board of Trade.
The USDA's latest report came as some Nebraska and Iowa farmers are still reeling from last week's wind, rain and hail storms.
The latest acreage report by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service showed that farmers nationwide planted 87.3 million acres to corn, 7 percent fewer than the 93.6 million acres planted in 2007. They expect to harvest 78.9 million acres, down 9 percent from the 86.5 million acres a year ago.
The decline from last year is due to a wet, cool spring that delayed farmers getting into sodden fields. And after crops emerged, some have been destroyed by flooding, hail or high winds.
The report, which dealt with an array of crops, also showed soybean acreage up 17 percent nationally.
It showed 13.7 million acres planted to corn in Iowa, a 3.5 percent decline from last year. Nebraska had 9 million acres planted to corn, a 4.2 percent decline from last year.
Farmers in Iowa, harder hit by flooding, anticipate a 7.6 percent decline in harvested corn acres, while a 4.8 percent drop is anticipated in Nebraska.
Corn prices have risen about 80 percent since last year, fueled in part by increased demand for ethanol.
Some have said that the higher demand for corn helped push up food prices and increased pressure on cattle, pork and poultry producers who depend upon corn to feed their animals. Ethanol's defenders, however, have blamed higher fuel prices and distribution costs.
Some Nebraska and Iowa agriculture experts said the latest USDA report may be too optimistic because it does not reflect the most recent crop damage.
Monday's report was based on a USDA survey of more than 87,000 farmers in early June, combined with observation of about 11,000 plots of land.
Last week, researchers re-interviewed 1,150 farmers in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin to assess flooding impact.
"I don't doubt that guys said they intended to get it replanted when the USDA called,'' said Dave Miller, director of research and commodity services for the Iowa Farm Bureau.
"But I see enough water sitting in holes yet to know they didn't get it replanted. When they were doing their survey, people were still pretty optimistic,'' he said.
As recently as Friday, hail and winds exceeding 100 mph destroyed some crops in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
The Dean Hoffman family, who farm in western Douglas County, lost all of their corn and soybeans, said Vivian Hoffman.
"We did farm -- until last Friday,'' she said jokingly. "All of the corn and the beans are just flattened.'' Winds exceeding 100 mph also destroyed two barns, six grain bins, wrecked at least one center pivot and broke the windows in her house.
Hoffman declined to say how many acres the family lost. She said her son and husband have already replanted some soybeans. She said they're thinking about replanting corn, but it's probably too late for this year.
Kyle Jensen, an Iowa State University extension agronomist who serves 10 counties in southwest Iowa, said Friday's storm caused extensive crop damage on a line from Council Bluffs to Henderson, Iowa.
He said corn already is behind in development because of late planting due to the wet spring, and it's getting too late for farmers to re-plant because there's not enough time for it to fully mature before frost.
"Planting corn today or any time later than this is going to be pretty risky,'' Jensen said.
Rob Robertson, government liaison for the Nebraska Farm Bureau, said Monday's USDA report doesn't answer questions about the extent of the most recent storm damage to the Midlands corn crop.
"The big question is how many of those acres are going to be harvested and what the yields are going to be,'' he said.
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